Overconfidence test
Overconfidence means being more sure than you have reason to be. Almost everyone does it some of the time, and very few people can tell when. This free test shows you how your confidence compares with how often you are actually right.
What the test asks
There are two kinds of questions. In one, you pick one of two answers and then say how sure you are, from 50% (a coin flip) to 100% (certain). In the other, you are asked for a number, such as the height of a mountain, and you give a range you are 90% sure contains the true value.
Nothing here is a trick. The questions are general knowledge, and every answer has a source. The point is not how much you know. It is whether you know how much you know.
How overconfidence is measured
For the two-choice questions, the test compares your average confidence with the share of questions you got right. If you were 80% sure on average and right 65% of the time, you were 15 points overconfident. For the number questions, it counts how many of your 90% ranges caught the true answer. Ranges that are honestly 90% sure should catch it about 9 times in 10.
Your results page shows both numbers, a chart of your confidence against your accuracy, and how your answers compare with everyone else who has taken the test.
What results usually look like
In many studies, ranges that people call 90% sure contain the true answer far less often than 9 times in 10, often closer to half. People also tend to be most overconfident on hard questions and slightly underconfident on easy ones. Seeing your own numbers is the quickest way to find out where you stand.
Why it matters
Confidence drives decisions: how much time to plan for, how much to bet on a guess, when to ask for a second opinion. Being well calibrated does not mean being unsure of everything. It means your 90% really means 90%.
How to get better
Calibration improves with quick, honest feedback. The daily game gives you five questions a day, shows the answer and its source right after each one, and keeps your hit rate over time.
Start the overconfidence test ยท Play today's five questions
Free, with no account and no tracking. Answers are anonymous and go into a public research dataset.